2016 Oscar Predictions

oscars

Again, I have big shoes to fill. Last year, I predicted all of the big six and 14 out of 21 overall (not as good as two years ago but still pretty good). This year the frontrunners are not as clear so this’ll be harder, but here goes!

Best Picture

  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight

Prediction: Spotlight

Personal Choice: The Big Short

Other Thoughts: It’s between Spotlight and The Revenant, but I think The Revenant’s story was too weak and one note for a best picture win. The Big Short is my favorite of the bunch, but I don’t think the Academy will go for it. Where’s Carol? I’m glad Mad Max got in here, even if my personal favorite film of the year, It Follows, didn’t (I knew it wouldn’t).

Best Director

  • Adam McKay – The Big Short
  • George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
  • Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
  • Lenny Abrahamson – Room
  • Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

Prediction: Alejandro G. Iñárritu

Personal Choice: George Miller

Other Thoughts: Best director and best picture almost always go to the same film, but not always, and I’m predicting a difference this year. I think that while Spotlight and Big Short are very well directed, their main strengths are in their writing and editing (the writing in The Revenant and Mad Max wasn’t as great, although it worked well for Mad Max). I think F Gary Gray should’ve been nomination for Straight Outta Compton, he directed the crap out of that film.

Best Actor

  • Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
  • Matt Damon – The Martian
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
  • Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio

Personal Choice: Leonardo DiCaprio

Other Thoughts: My pick for best performance of the year, Steve Carell in The Big Short, wasn’t even nominated. This category is a little lackluster compared to previous years. Leo was amazing, but his role didn’t have much dynamicism or range, and I think he’s been more deserving in the past. But he definitely deserves an award and this seems like a good year to give it to him. 

Best Actress

  • Cate Blanchett – Carol
  • Brie Larson – Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Prediction: Brie Larson

Personal Choice: Brie Larson

Other Thoughts: I haven’t seen Joy or 45 Years, but based on the other three performances, this category is strong. All are deserving but Cate Blanchett already has an award and I think they’ll want to spread the love. Also, I think Charlize Theron and maybe even Maika Monroe should be in here.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Christian Bale – The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy – The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone – Creed

Prediction: Sylvester Stallone

Personal Choice: Mark Ruffalo

Other Thoughts: I still haven’t seen Creed, although I want to. I hear lots of buzz about Stallone, which is why I’m predicting him. I loved Ruffalo’s performance in Spotlight (and most of his work), so he gets my choice.

Best Supporting Actress

 

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
  • Rooney Mara – Carol
  • Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
  • Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Prediction: Jennifer Jason Leigh

Personal Choice: Jennifer Jason Leigh

Other Thoughts: Jennifer Jason Leigh stole the show in Hateful Eight, and with the cast she was working with, that is one impressive feat. She was so good in that film, she definitely deserves the award in my book.

Additional Thoughts: 20 nominations, 20 caucasians. Where are all the minorities? The Academy is getting it from all sides on this one but honestly, it’s not entirely their fault: they can only nominate from the films that are made and the real problem is that there are enough minority driven films being made. But I do also think there is a bias in the Academy, as it seems that a minority driven film needs to be 10 out of 10 to be nominated while caucasian films will get the noms even if they are only 8 or 9 out of 10 (Brooklyn, Room, The Martian).

Best Original Screenplay

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Ex Machina
  • Inside Out
  • Spotlight
  • Straight Outta Compton

Prediction: Spotlight

Personal Choice: Ex Machina

Other Thoughts: Can it really be considered original if it’s based on a true story? I guess the script is original, even if the story and characters aren’t. I love when script, story, and characters are all original, and that is so rare today; only two of the above meet that.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • The Big Short
  • Brooklyn
  • Carol
  • The Martian
  • Room

Prediction: Carol

Personal Choice: The Big Short

Other Thoughts: I just don’t see the Academy going for The Big Short. Maybe they’ll prove me wrong. The Martian may surprise, that seems like a film that the Academy members just love.

Best Animated Feature

  • Anomalisa
  • Boy & the World
  • Inside Out
  • Shaun the Sheep Movie
  • When Marnie Was There

Prediction: Inside Out

Personal Choice: Inside Out

Other Thoughts: PIXAR is almost always a good bet here, but I think Inside Out is their best film in years and I think it deserves to win. Anomalisa was a critical darling but it didn’t work for me and I don’t think the Academy will go for it either. I have not seen the other films.

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Embrace of the Serpent, Colombia
  • Mustang, France
  • Son of Saul, Hungary
  • Theeb, Jordan
  • A War, Denmark

Prediction: Son of Saul

Personal Choice: Not enough information

Other Thoughts: I hear Son of Saul is really good. I haven’t heard much about the others.

Best Documentary Feature

  • Amy
  • Cartel Land
  • The Look of Silence
  • What Happened, Miss Simone?
  • Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Prediction: Amy

Personal Choice: Not enough information

Other Thoughts: I have not seen any of these films, although I did see Going Clear (why isn’t it here?) and I have my Look of Silence screener sitting right next to me. I hear Amy is really good, so I’m going with that one.

Alright, now it’s time for the technical categories.

 

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About Gabriel Bruskoff
I write about films! I make them too! See www.gabrielbruskoff.com for more information.

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